AUTHOR: Redaspie DATE: Tuesday, August 15, 2006 ----- BODY:

We are now one day into the ceasefire in the Lebanon, and it seems to be holding, allowing people to return to the homes they fled from at the start of the conflict. This is good news in itself, but there are a number of reasons to suspect that this conflict is not yet over.

First of all, it is important to acknowledge one very important fact - Hezbollah won. They withstood a massive onslaught from the IDF, prevented the Israelis from advancing towards the Litani River, and gained the support of the Lebanese people and of Arabs across the region. Furthermore, Israel knows this, which is why there is now such a crisis in Israel. The future of Prime Minister Olmert and his government is now in some doubt. Furthermore, the Lebanese people are aware of this, and are celebrating. And the governments of Syria and Iran are shouting it from the rooftops. Israel failed in its attempts to get an armed multinational taskforce into the Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah on Israel's behalf. Instead they will have to deal with a Chapter 6 UN force, without authorisation or, presumably, the arsenal to use force. Nor does the UN resolution call for Hezbollah's disarming. What has happened is thus very clear: the IDF were battered about the head by Hezbollah and forced into a humiliating climbdown. There is even talk in Israel of opening negotiations with Syria.

So where does this leave us? There has been a lot of speculation about the aims of Israel's war, and I myself indulged in this in an earlier post, inspired by an article by Uri Avnery, which argued that it was a long-standing aim of Israel to have a puppet government in charge in Beirut. There has been talk a plenty over at Lenin's Tomb that Israel wanted to occupy the south of the Lebanon and seize control of the Litani River, an idea that George Monbiot is dismissive of. It is also widely believed that Washington saw this as a stepping stone to war with Iran or even Syria. I seem to recall making the point that it is a mistake to see the actors in any such saga as unified billiard-ball entities and that within national and international elites there are factions and tendencies with differing and sometimes conflicting aims. Once can imagine some in the Israeli elites seeing the Litani, or even Beirut, as objectives. One can imagine the neocons and possibly others in Washington, as imagining this in terms of preparing the ground work for a wider assault on the 'axis of evil'. However, what is important is that all these different goals required the defeat of Hezbollah, and instead it has emerged considerably strengthened.

There may be some who see this as meaning that the hawks in Washington and Tel Aviv have been undermined, but that is not necessarily the case. Olmert may be in trouble, but the most likely beneficiary is Netanyahu, uber-hardline leader of Likud. And in Washington, there does not appear to be much sign of anxiety. Indeed one can almost hear the calculation that the PNAC brigade are making: Olmert proved to be unreliable, too gentle, too pragmatic, too weak. Netanyahu and the right are now clearly the way forward, and once they are in power, then the fun can begin again, with twice the ferocity. It seems likely that this will have been a prelude to something much greater.

-------- COMMENT-AUTHOR: Julaybib COMMENT-DATE:5:56 AM COMMENT-BODY:I recall an ultra right wing Zionist lecturer at Leeds Uni - Nina Collins - interupting a tutorial on ancient Near East geography as it pertained to the Book of Daniel to proclaim that Israel should expand its borders by x number of miles for some military defence purpose I didn't quite comprehend - apparently, it would give sufficient time for Israeli fighter to scramble once enemy aircraft crossing below radar into Israeli air space were spotted. I'm not sufficient informed about such matters to know whether this argument is even sane. I suspect Nina was barking, although anyone who can compete a PhD in two years deserves some respect.

Wasalaam

TMA -------- COMMENT-AUTHOR: Redaspie COMMENT-DATE:8:05 PM COMMENT-BODY:Anyone who completes a PhD in two years is obviously not human if you ask me (speaking as one who has done a PhD). And yes she very obviously is completely mad. The idea doesn't even make logical sense - once the enemy aircraft are in Israeli airspace, then they're in Israeli airspace, and expanding the number of miles Israel owns won't change the length of time it takes for planes to scramble. So the idea just doesn't make sense. -------- COMMENT-AUTHOR: Tom COMMENT-DATE:10:48 PM COMMENT-BODY:Hmm. If this causes Israelis to elect another Likud-based government this could really suck. We'll have to see.

I think Israel won out of this too, because it is in their long term interest to become more peaceful in the way they behave.

A victory for peace, I'd say.

Julaybib, I can't understand the logic of her reasoning; surely if Israel expanded it would have to guard the part it expanded into too?

Doesn't sound that smart to me... -------- COMMENT-AUTHOR: Redaspie COMMENT-DATE:1:01 PM COMMENT-BODY:That's the problem, El Tom. The response of the hardliners to this won't be to cave in, but to say that Israel needs to strike harder and more broadly. Take the war to Tehran and all that. -------- COMMENT-AUTHOR: Minge COMMENT-DATE:2:58 PM COMMENT-BODY:It's all got rather nasty. The Israelis should elect a woman PM to see if that would make a difference. -------- COMMENT-AUTHOR: Tom COMMENT-DATE:1:13 AM COMMENT-BODY:Yeah, Israeli hardliners really piss me off. When will their public get the message?

They will only live in peace once they themselves are peaceful.

Thanks for your post at mine, by the way. I have responded.

Peace. --------